作戰(zhàn)方案計(jì)劃推演評(píng)估

第一章 作戰(zhàn)方案計(jì)劃推演評(píng)估概述 ……… ... 1
一、作戰(zhàn)方案計(jì)劃推演評(píng)估概念···········..·… ……………… 1
（一）目的是方案計(jì)劃的評(píng)估································.····..·2
（二）方法是動(dòng)態(tài)對(duì)抗推演·······································5
（三）依據(jù)是實(shí)戰(zhàn)方案計(jì)劃············································8
二、方案計(jì)劃推演評(píng)估的歷史演進(jìn)·····································9
（一）中國(guó)古代的“廟算”與“運(yùn)籌”························10
（二）近代西方的桌面棋子推演···································13
（三）現(xiàn)代數(shù)學(xué)運(yùn)籌分析方法的興起·····························16
（四）信息科學(xué)推動(dòng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)實(shí)驗(yàn)出現(xiàn)和發(fā)展.···.................19
三、方案計(jì)劃推演評(píng)估的主要特點(diǎn)·······························21
（一）依案組織 ………… ...................................21
（二）對(duì)抗實(shí)施 …........................................................23
(三）數(shù)據(jù)量化 .........................................................24
（四）多案比對(duì)···············································.27
（五）關(guān)注重心······································.·.·.......28
四、推演評(píng)估活動(dòng)中的辯證····································29
（一）推演評(píng)估結(jié)果的承認(rèn)與運(yùn)用··············.·.............30
（二）推演評(píng)估過程的實(shí)證與分析 ……………31
（三）推演評(píng)估準(zhǔn)備的精確與模糊 …·…·· 33
第二章 作戰(zhàn)方案計(jì)劃推演評(píng)估的技術(shù)路徑···························35
推演評(píng)估的總體技術(shù)思路…·…·…… …………… 35
（一）作戰(zhàn)模擬對(duì)抗 ……
……………
（二）仿真探索實(shí)驗(yàn)
（三）綜合研討評(píng)估 ……
二、作戰(zhàn)模型主要計(jì)算方法··············· ........···········4
（一）對(duì)抗數(shù)理方程方法········… ………4
（二）概率隨機(jī)參數(shù)方法················ ....····…
（三）探索實(shí)驗(yàn)比較方法··············
三、復(fù)雜性理論集成方法················· ..........….S9
（一）作戰(zhàn)效能涌現(xiàn)與集成 ......·· ....………… 6
（二）系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模擬集成·············· …············…… 62
（三）通過作戰(zhàn)模型體系和推演控制實(shí)現(xiàn)集成 ………·…… 65
第三章 與具有評(píng)估功能的其他軍事活動(dòng)辨析···············… 69
一、與指揮模擬訓(xùn)練的區(qū)別聯(lián)系…… ··...
…·············· 69
（一）指揮模擬訓(xùn)練的方案計(jì)劃評(píng)估功能·······················70
(二)
方案計(jì)劃推演評(píng)估與指揮模擬訓(xùn)練的不同 ···········72
(三）方案計(jì)劃推演評(píng)估與指揮模擬訓(xùn)練的聯(lián)系
二、與實(shí)兵對(duì)抗演習(xí)的區(qū)別聯(lián)系·······················.·.......75 ……74
(一）實(shí)兵對(duì)抗演習(xí)的方案計(jì)劃評(píng)估功能
(二) …···············75
方案計(jì)劃推演評(píng)估與實(shí)兵對(duì)抗演習(xí)的不同 ·····.····76
（三）方案計(jì)劃推演評(píng)估與實(shí)兵對(duì)抗演習(xí)的聯(lián)系···...........77
三、與作戰(zhàn)能力評(píng)估的區(qū)別聯(lián)系····……………·········.................80
（一）作戰(zhàn)能力評(píng)估的方案計(jì)劃評(píng)估功能（····................80
（二）方案計(jì)劃推演評(píng)估與作戰(zhàn)能力評(píng)估的不同······.......81
（三）方案計(jì)劃推演評(píng)估與作戰(zhàn)能力評(píng)估活動(dòng)的聯(lián)系
四、與裝備體系效能評(píng)估的區(qū)別聯(lián)系······················.....85 （一）裝備體系效能評(píng)估的方案計(jì)劃評(píng)估功能 ……·83
ii· （二）方案計(jì)劃推演評(píng)估與裝備體系效能評(píng)估的不同 …….....85
……… 86