作戰(zhàn)方案計劃推演評估

第一章 作戰(zhàn)方案計劃推演評估概述 ……… ... 1
一、作戰(zhàn)方案計劃推演評估概念···········..·… ……………… 1
（一）目的是方案計劃的評估································.····..·2
（二）方法是動態(tài)對抗推演·······································5
（三）依據(jù)是實戰(zhàn)方案計劃············································8
二、方案計劃推演評估的歷史演進·····································9
（一）中國古代的“廟算”與“運籌”························10
（二）近代西方的桌面棋子推演···································13
（三）現(xiàn)代數(shù)學(xué)運籌分析方法的興起·····························16
（四）信息科學(xué)推動戰(zhàn)爭實驗出現(xiàn)和發(fā)展.···.................19
三、方案計劃推演評估的主要特點·······························21
（一）依案組織 ………… ...................................21
（二）對抗實施 …........................................................23
(三）數(shù)據(jù)量化 .........................................................24
（四）多案比對···············································.27
（五）關(guān)注重心······································.·.·.......28
四、推演評估活動中的辯證····································29
（一）推演評估結(jié)果的承認(rèn)與運用··············.·.............30
（二）推演評估過程的實證與分析 ……………31
（三）推演評估準(zhǔn)備的精確與模糊 …·…·· 33
第二章 作戰(zhàn)方案計劃推演評估的技術(shù)路徑···························35
推演評估的總體技術(shù)思路…·…·…… …………… 35
（一）作戰(zhàn)模擬對抗 ……
……………
（二）仿真探索實驗
（三）綜合研討評估 ……
二、作戰(zhàn)模型主要計算方法··············· ........···········4
（一）對抗數(shù)理方程方法········… ………4
（二）概率隨機參數(shù)方法················ ....····…
（三）探索實驗比較方法··············
三、復(fù)雜性理論集成方法················· ..........….S9
（一）作戰(zhàn)效能涌現(xiàn)與集成 ......·· ....………… 6
（二）系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模擬集成·············· …············…… 62
（三）通過作戰(zhàn)模型體系和推演控制實現(xiàn)集成 ………·…… 65
第三章 與具有評估功能的其他軍事活動辨析···············… 69
一、與指揮模擬訓(xùn)練的區(qū)別聯(lián)系…… ··...
…·············· 69
（一）指揮模擬訓(xùn)練的方案計劃評估功能·······················70
(二)
方案計劃推演評估與指揮模擬訓(xùn)練的不同 ···········72
(三）方案計劃推演評估與指揮模擬訓(xùn)練的聯(lián)系
二、與實兵對抗演習(xí)的區(qū)別聯(lián)系·······················.·.......75 ……74
(一）實兵對抗演習(xí)的方案計劃評估功能
(二) …···············75
方案計劃推演評估與實兵對抗演習(xí)的不同 ·····.····76
（三）方案計劃推演評估與實兵對抗演習(xí)的聯(lián)系···...........77
三、與作戰(zhàn)能力評估的區(qū)別聯(lián)系····……………·········.................80
（一）作戰(zhàn)能力評估的方案計劃評估功能（····................80
（二）方案計劃推演評估與作戰(zhàn)能力評估的不同······.......81
（三）方案計劃推演評估與作戰(zhàn)能力評估活動的聯(lián)系
四、與裝備體系效能評估的區(qū)別聯(lián)系······················.....85 （一）裝備體系效能評估的方案計劃評估功能 ……·83
ii· （二）方案計劃推演評估與裝備體系效能評估的不同 …….....85
……… 86